Friday, April 22, 2011

Polski yuppies and PO's problem

What do rich youthful city-dwelling pleasure seekers not like to do? Vote. What do you these Polski yuppie voters need to justify not voting and instead boating/hiking/bungee-jumping/horseback-riding/waterskiing/windsurfing/getting wasted anywhere but in Warsaw? Their party set up for a sure win.

These wealthy well-educated voters view the senior ruling Civic Platform (PO) as their party. This is so ingrained that the PO is in some ways an aspirational product. If you live in one of Poland's bigger cities, drive something better than a VW, have at least one very expensive designer clothing item, you are a PO voter already. If you're still trying to kill a few rats in the race, you vote for them anyway as part of the process of looking successful.

The PO will read with trepidation a recent poll showing that 47% of all voters are already convinced the PO will win the October parliamentary elections. The party's nerves are frayed on the issue since it was hurt badly by apathy in 2005. Then, the party had led opinion polls for so long and everyone was so convinced that it would lead the next government, its voters didn't bother to show. On record low turnout, the cranks from Law and Justice (PiS) won the most votes, led a coalition with the populist psychos from LPR and Samoobrona, and ran governments that had more in common with circuses than executives.

The PO will thus make sure its voters are fired up. Step one: scare everyone with favourite bogeyman Jaroslaw Kaczynski and PiS. Kaczynski, the PO must thankfully say, helps them each and every day by using rhetoric that offends all but the convinced. Step two: scare everyone with favourite bogeyman . . . .

Will it work? Perhaps. Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his henchmen are scary. Though many voters are turned off by the PO these days, they do not want to see Kaczynski as PM again or see Poland royally embarrassed on the global stage. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) does appear to be gaining traction, but it is still too "communist." No one else has a chance.

1 comment:

  1. Sounds like Canada's upcoming federal election. :)